My FKLI Technical Analysis (November 18, 2005)

Roll-over Week: Yes
Contract: Spot month - November 2005

Trend Stage: 3

Crowd Psychology:
Yesterday
The price opened higher, moved higher and closed higher as CI closed higher and DJIA gained 45.46 points.
Today
The price may open higher or gapped-up as DJIA gained 46.11overnight.

Candlestick
- There is a long white candle after a black candle. It is bullish.

Wyckoff Chart Analysis


Support, Resistance, Trend-lines and chart patterns
- Candlestick support for Spot month: 879.5, resistance: 897.5
- There is a breakdown on a Head and Shoulder Top and followed by further breakdown and lower high and lower low.
- There is a possible Descending triangle formation with height of 38.5 and target of 857.5 from 895.5 on daily chart
- There is a bullish flag formation in the weekly chart and there is a rising wedge on the monthly chart

- Trends: Stay Short because
-- Immediate Trend: up
-- Medium Trend: Down after H&S Top Breakdown
-- Long-term Trend: Down after Descending Triangle Breakdown
-- The price broke a down-trend line and is moving above an up-trend-line.
- The price broke the resistance of 895.5.

- The price is below 200 SMA (breaks 200-SMA):
- 200-SMA: 900.24 (falling)

Trend-Following Indicators
- ADX (27 and flat). The market is trendy as ADX > 25.

Oscillators
- Stochastic %K (70.34 and rising) > %D (Rising). The price hit new low but the %K does not hit new low. There is a bullish divergence.

Volume and OI
Date Price | Change | Volume | OI Change
November 18, 2005 | +11 | 3049(Average) | -1400(Bearish)

CI Direction and Confirmation


- Stage: 3
- Immediate Trend: Up, Medium Trend: Down
- Trend line: The price broke a down-trend line. The price is moving up.
- The price broke the critical resistance line of 902.39. Need to wait for next day to confirm.
- There is a possible descending triangle formation with height 29.27 and target: 873.12 from 902.39.
- There are some stocks keep moving up even the market is weak. These stock are defensive or growth stocks:
-- IOICorp (Growth – Palm Oil)
-- IOIOle (Growth – Palm Oil)
-- Malakoff (Defensive – IPP)
-- YTLPwr (Defensive) – IPP)
-- Nestle (Defensive – Consumer Daily Products)
-- F&N (Defensive - Consumer)
-- Guinness (Defensive – Consumer Beer)
-- PPB (Defensive – Palm Oil, Consumer Necessities and Transportation)
-- PBBOil (Growth – Palm Oil)
-- MISC (Growth and Defensive – LPG and Petroleum Transporter and Shipping)

- Candlestick: There is a long white candle after a black candle. It is bullish.
- ADX (34 and start to fall). The market is trendy as ADX > 25.
- Momentum Oscillator: Stochastic %K (%K=48.29 and rising).
- 200-SMA=903.95 (falling). Price <>